Sierra Leone’s economic trajectory is undergoing a marked transformation, according to the United Nations’ 2025 Mid-Year Report, which highlights both the country’s structural progress and enduring development challenges. Following years of volatility triggered by global health crises and economic shocks, the nation is now redefining its economic identity—bolstered by the historic rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—while grappling with fiscal pressure and persistent social inequalities.
From Conflict to Crisis: A Nation’s Economic Journey
Since the end of its devastating civil conflict in 2002, Sierra Leone has achieved periods of robust growth, often outperforming regional peers in West Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the gains were short-lived. The Ebola outbreak in 2014–2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021 dealt heavy blows to the economy, derailing growth and constraining development prospects in the short to medium term.
GDP Rebasing Doubles Economy, Reveals Structural Shift
In 2024, Statistics Sierra Leone rebased the national GDP from the 2006 base year to 2018, revealing that the economy had doubled in size—from USD 4 billion to USD 8 billion. This transformation marked a shift from a largely agrarian economy to one increasingly dominated by services.
The new data showed the services sector now contributes 46 percent of GDP, displacing agriculture, which declined from 60 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile, the industry sector has grown from 7 percent to 21 percent, underpinned by expanding mining and construction activities.
Growth Trends and Inflation Stabilization
The rebased series indicates GDP growth of 5.3 percent in 2022 and 5.7 percent in 2023, with a slight dip to 4.4 percent in 2024. Projections for 2025 remain optimistic at 4.5 percent, driven by increased investments in agriculture and mining.
Inflation, which had soared to 55 percent in October 2023, has since declined sharply to 7.1 percent in June 2025. Food inflation has also eased, falling to 4.63 percent, thanks in part to improved domestic supply chains and global price stabilization.
Fiscal Strain Persists Despite Debt-to-GDP Relief
While the rebasing has improved debt-to-GDP ratios, signaling enhanced sustainability, the broader fiscal outlook remains strained. Domestic revenue is expected to fall to 9.8 percent of GDP in 2025, down from 10.2 percent in 2024—well below the 15–25 percent range recommended for developing economies.
At the same time, the fiscal deficit has widened significantly, rising from 3.5 percent in 2024 to 8.5 percent in 2025, largely due to increased domestic debt repayments.
Human Development: Progress and Gaps
Sierra Leone has also made important strides in human development. The Free Quality School Education (FQSE) programme, launched in 2018, has increased enrollment across all educational levels. Health indicators have also improved, with maternal mortality dropping from 1,165 per 100,000 live births in 2013 to 443 in 2020, and infant mortality falling to 71 per 1,000 live births in 2024.
However, progress remains limited. The country ranks 184th out of 195 on the UNDP Human Development Index, with a score of 0.400 in 2024—an increase of only 0.077 since 2021.
Poverty and Inequality Remain Stark
Despite gains, income poverty remains pervasive. As of 2024, 32.7 percent of the population lived below the international poverty line of USD 2.15 per day (PPP 2017). Rural areas are disproportionately affected, with poverty rates at 73.9 percent, compared to 34.3 percent in urban centers.
The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) further underscores regional inequality. Districts like Pujehun, Karene, and Falaba report MPI scores well above the national average of 0.309. Encouragingly, female-headed households and those with higher education levels are statistically less likely to experience poverty, emphasizing the need for gender-responsive and education-focused policies.
Labour Market Shifts and Gender Disparities
Labour force participation has declined for both men and women over the past two decades. The gender gap is widening: by 2023, nearly 50 percent of women aged 15 and above were outside the labour force, compared to 44 percent of men—a trend that poses serious implications for inclusive economic growth.
The Road Ahead
Sierra Leone’s rebased economy presents a dual narrative—one of modernizing promise and persistent vulnerability. The shift toward services and industry offers new economic pathways, yet fiscal imbalances, low revenue mobilization, and entrenched poverty continue to threaten long-term stability.
As the government rolls out its Medium-Term National Development Plan (2024–2030) under the theme “Transformative Acceleration for Food Security, Human Capital Development, and Job Creation,” the United Nations stresses the need for inclusive growth, increased domestic revenue generation, gender equity, and expanded social services to ensure no one is left behind in Sierra Leone’s next chapter.
