By Alusine A. Sesay
I told you so, didn’t I?
My earlier contention was unequivocal: two days ago, I stated clearly that Maada Bio’s diplomatic venture to Guinea Bissau, undertaken in pursuit of a negotiated settlement with the military junta, was destined to be an exercise in sheer futility.
That assessment has now been vindicated.
Guinea Bissau’s National Electoral Commission has formally announced that it is unable to certify or release the results of the 23 November presidential election.
According to the Commission, armed operatives destroyed the majority of the physical vote tallies, as well as the principal server containing the digital records, during the military takeover on 26 November.
In effect, the entire electoral process has been rendered null and void, and you know what that means.
Guinea Bissau’s history makes this unfortunate development unsurprising. Since attaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has experienced no fewer than nine coups, an extraordinary pattern of political volatility.
It is perhaps most striking that Maada Bio himself would have been acutely aware that his intervention would produce no meaningful outcome. Before even embarking on the journey, he must have recognised that the junta had neither the desire nor the inclination to relinquish power or to permit the disclosure of electoral results.
Nevertheless, in his capacity as Chair of ECOWAS, he was compelled to perform the ceremonial rituals of regional diplomacy, if only to preserve the semblance of institutional engagement and to reassure a public that remains surprisingly susceptible to symbolic gestures.
Some individuals must learn to discern political reality from theatrical posturing. The African Union, ECOWAS, the European Union and similar organisations would be well advised to seek informed strategic counsel from those of us capable of rigorous, evidence based analysis. We do not speak frivolously; our assertions are grounded in extensive knowledge of West African and broader African political dynamics.
Guinea Bissau did exactly what I predicted: the junta issued uncompromising warnings, formally removed the president from office, suspended the ongoing electoral process, closed the national borders (now reopened), and assumed complete control over the machinery of the state.
Meanwhile, Nigeria has already extended asylum to the opposition presidential candidate Fernando Dias da Costa, mere days after the coup, signalling an early shift in regional alignments.
And what of the deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embaló?
He has taken refuge in Congo Brazzaville, while the military leaders who ousted him now exercise unbridled authority in Bissau. Yet, paradoxically, Embaló’s influence persists, continuing to reverberate through the nation’s political landscape.
One must also acknowledge Guinea Bissau’s unfortunate status as a critical node in the trans Atlantic narcotics trade linking Latin America and Europe. It is therefore reasonable to surmise that the criminal networks benefiting from this illicit economy are leveraging the present instability to entrench their operations.
ECOWAS has since issued its characteristic admonition, threatening sanctions against those “undermining democracy,” and has scheduled yet another high level discussion for 14 December.
The performance endures, even as substantive progress remains elusive.
